Global Shipping Alliances Restructure Starting February 2025 and Impact on Vietnamese Ports

The changes in global shipping alliances starting from 2025 mark a significant turning point for the maritime transportation market.

The restructuring of major global shipping alliances, expected to take place from February 2025, is creating ripples across the global shipping industry. The formation of new alliances such as Gemini Cooperation (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd) and Premier Alliance (HMM, ONE, Yang Ming), along with the continued operation of Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen, OOCL), will not only reshape the shipping market but also present both opportunities and challenges for Vietnamese ports.

New Alliance Structures Include:

  • The End of the 2M Alliance: Maersk and MSC will officially part ways in January 2025, ending nearly a decade of cooperation. While MSC will focus on expanding its fleet, Maersk is shifting its focus to integrated logistics services.
  • Gemini Cooperation: The partnership between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd will begin operations in February 2025, with a fleet of 290 ships, totaling 3.4 million TEU in capacity. Gemini’s network will reduce port calls on major routes and instead utilize regional ports to connect goods to central hubs.
  • Premier Alliance: HMM, ONE, and Yang Ming, restructuring from THE Alliance, will focus on transpacific and Asia-Europe trade routes.
  • Ocean Alliance: Maintaining its current structure and extending its operational agreement until 2032, Ocean Alliance will continue to be the largest alliance with a total capacity of 6 million TEU.

Market Share of Shipping Alliances Before and After Restructuring:

Before the restructuring, three major alliances, along with MSC (operating independently), dominated the global container shipping market:

  • 2M Alliance (Maersk and MSC): 34.4% market share
  • Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen, OOCL): 29.3% market share
  • THE Alliance (Hapag-Lloyd, ONE, Yang Ming, HMM): 18.5% market share

After the restructuring, significant changes in the alliance structures lead to shifts in market share as follows:

  • Gemini Cooperation: Formed by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, with an estimated market share of around 21.5%, and a fleet capacity of 3.4 million TEU. Maersk contributes 60%, and Hapag-Lloyd contributes 40%.
  • Premier Alliance: Replacing THE Alliance, consisting of HMM, ONE, and Yang Ming. With Hapag-Lloyd leaving the alliance, Premier Alliance will become the smallest alliance, with an estimated market share of around 11.6%.
  • Ocean Alliance: Continuing to be the largest alliance, focusing on Asia-Europe and transpacific routes, with an estimated market share of 29.3%.
  • MSC: After leaving the 2M Alliance, MSC will operate independently with the world’s largest fleet (approximately 5 million TEU) and an estimated market share of 19.8%.

Impact on Vietnamese Ports:

The restructuring of these alliances is expected to have a significant impact on key ports in Vietnam, particularly in Hai Phong and Cai Mep – Thi Vai (CM-TV), which heavily rely on these shipping alliances.

  1. Restructuring Could Lead to Changes in Shipping Routes: The formation of Gemini Cooperation could change the flow of goods from Europe to Vietnam, with a preference for deep-water ports or ports with better management systems. Cai Mep – Thi Vai port has a significant advantage as a deep-water port, capable of handling large vessels (>18,000 TEU). This could make CM-TV a more attractive destination if the new alliances focus on the Asia-Europe trade routes. CM-TV may attract more large vessels from Gemini Cooperation and Ocean Alliance’s Asia-Europe routes. Meanwhile, Hai Phong Port could face difficulties maintaining its cargo volumes if the alliances prefer regional transshipment hubs like Singapore or Malaysia. Some ports may lose traditional customers due to changes in shipping routes, but new routes may also bring potential customers.
  2. Vietnamese Ports Need to Invest in Infrastructure: Vietnamese ports must make significant investments in infrastructure, including modern berths, cargo handling equipment, and logistics systems, to meet the needs of the new alliances. Hai Phong Port will need to enhance its cargo handling capacity, especially on intra-Asia and transshipment routes. Cai Mep – Thi Vai will need upgrades to compete with regional ports like Port Klang (Malaysia) or Singapore, in order to attract more ocean-going vessels.
  3. Increased Competition Among Ports: Ports will face tougher competition to attract vessels, which may lead to price reductions or the introduction of additional value-added services such as warehousing and logistics. Deep-water ports like CM-TV may leverage their negotiating power with major shipping lines due to their ability to accommodate super-large vessels. Currently, the deep-water berths at Lach Huyen 3-4 and 5-6 are being rapidly developed, with operations expected to start in Q1 2025 to align with changes in global shipping alliances (February 2025). Once Lach Huyen 3-4 and 5-6 are operational, it will increase competitive pressure in Hai Phong, which already has excess capacity, and with ports capable of handling large ships like HICT and Nam Dinh Vu (GMD).
  4. Vietnam’s Strategic Position in Global Supply Chain: With its strategic position in the global supply chain, Vietnam has the opportunity to attract international investment in ports and logistics. The restructuring of alliances could be an opportunity for Vietnam to develop deep-water ports like CM-TV into international transshipment hubs serving the Southeast Asia region. The presence of MSC and its plans for joint ventures in Vietnam’s deep-water ports, such as the agreement with PHP (to develop Lach Huyen 3-4) and the intention to invest in building an international transshipment port in Can Gio (SGP), highlights Vietnam’s strategic importance to MSC.

The restructuring of global shipping alliances starting in 2025 marks a major turning point for the shipping market. For Vietnam, this presents challenges but also opens up opportunities to improve port capacity, enhance trade connectivity, and solidify its position in the global supply chain. Proper management of these impacts and strategic investments in infrastructure will determine how well Vietnamese ports can leverage these changes in the new phase.

Source: kienthudautu