In 2025, Vietnam’s export target is to achieve a growth rate of over 12%, which means export value is expected to reach $451 billion. To reach this goal, the Ministry of Industry and Trade believes that in addition to boosting production, businesses need to effectively leverage the preferential opportunities provided by Free Trade Agreements (FTAs).
Export Growth of $4 Billion per Month
2025 is seen as a time for “acceleration and breakthrough” to achieve the goal for the 2020-2025 term. The government aims for an economic growth rate of over 8% or 10% in favorable conditions to set the stage for double-digit growth in the period 2026-2030. The export of goods plays a pivotal role and is the main driving force for Vietnam’s economic growth.
According to Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyễn Hồng Diên, to meet the government’s growth target, the Ministry’s goal is for exports to grow by 12% – 14%. Achieving double-digit export growth is a highly challenging goal. On average, exports must increase by $4 billion per month compared to the monthly average of 2024, in the context of a global political and economic environment that is expected to remain complex and unpredictable.
In an interview with TBT-CVN, economist Vũ Vinh Phú emphasized that achieving 12% export growth in 2025, with export value targeting $451 billion, is a very challenging goal. To reach double-digit growth, key export sectors must accelerate from the beginning of the year, seize every market opportunity to secure orders, and maintain continuous production.
Boosting Focused Trade Promotion
In 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will intensify measures to support businesses through various forms of promotion, linking trade promotion activities with domestic production and export development, as well as boosting e-commerce and digital transformation. Early risk alerts will be issued, and the Ministry will stand by businesses when anti-dumping or trade defense cases arise.
According to the latest report from the General Statistics Office, in January, the total import-export turnover reached $63.15 billion, down 10.5% from the previous month and down 3.5% from the same period last year. Exports decreased by 4.3%, and imports dropped by 2.6%. The trade balance recorded a surplus of $3.03 billion.
In January 2025, export turnover reached $33.09 billion, down 6.9% compared to the previous month. The domestic economic sector contributed $9.49 billion, down 11.2%, while the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) reached $23.6 billion, down 5.0%.
Compared to January 2024, total export turnover decreased 4.3%, with the domestic sector down 0.9% (accounting for 28.7% of total export turnover), and the foreign-invested sector down 5.5% (accounting for 71.3%).
Seven items recorded export turnover of over $1 billion, accounting for 67.9% of total exports, including electronics, computers and components, machinery, equipment, textiles, footwear, wood and wood products, and transport vehicles and parts.
Imports in January 2025 reached $30.06 billion, a decrease of 14.1% compared to the previous month.
Although the January export-import results do not indicate a trend toward trade deficits, economist Vũ Vinh Phú also noted that ensuring exports requires the import of raw materials for production, which directly impacts the trade balance.
FTAs as Leverage for Export Growth
To achieve the target of double-digit export growth, Dr. Nguyễn Thường Lạng, a lecturer at the National Economics University, believes that Vietnam’s successful export base from 2024, especially with the signing and implementation of many FTAs, is a powerful motivation for 2025.
From the perspective of management agencies, Nguyễn Anh Sơn, Director of the Import-Export Department, Ministry of Industry and Trade, analyzed that in 2024, most export markets experienced recovery, and markets with FTAs with Vietnam showed strong growth. The total import-export turnover of the country reached $786.28 billion, up 15.2% compared to 2023.
“Vietnam’s export of goods has seen significant growth in recent years, especially with the implementation of a series of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), particularly the new-generation FTAs. These FTAs not only facilitate Vietnamese goods’ access to international markets but also help improve the investment environment and attract foreign businesses into Vietnam. With 17 FTAs signed and ongoing, Vietnam has opened up large opportunities for expanding markets, increasing trade, imports and exports, and attracting investment, all contributing to maintaining high economic growth,” said Mr. Anh Sơn.
Discussing solutions to realize the export growth target, Minister Nguyễn Hồng Diên shared that the Ministry of Industry and Trade will focus on implementing synchronized and effective solutions to leverage Vietnam’s competitive advantages and seize export market opportunities by promoting and supporting domestic businesses and industry associations in exploiting traditional markets with great potential. At the same time, the Ministry will proactively research and advise on negotiations and signing cooperation agreements with new markets, while focusing on maximizing opportunities from strategic and key markets.
Moreover, Vietnam will continue to leverage opportunities from FTAs, strengthening the role of Vietnamese trade agencies abroad in gathering information, promptly reflecting global economic developments, and responding to changes in policies of host countries to ensure Vietnam’s national interests.
Adapting to Global Economic Fluctuations
According to economic experts, Vietnam’s import-export activities in 2025 still face many risks and uncertainties. Specifically, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to make only two interest rate cuts in 2025, following a total reduction of 1% since September. The ongoing crisis in the Middle East has disrupted global and Vietnamese freight transport.
Additionally, protectionist trends are growing, with many countries adopting measures to bring investments back home and erecting trade barriers. Developed markets such as the EU are increasingly focused on sustainable development, implementing new regulations such as Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms and EU Anti-Deforestation Regulations, which could affect some of Vietnam’s key export products. Trade policy fluctuations from major economies, especially with the new U.S. presidential term, are likely to have significant and unpredictable impacts.
However, looking at the favorable aspects, Dr. Lê Huy Khôi, Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic and Policy Studies on Industry and Trade, Ministry of Industry and Trade, analyzed that fundamental export products, especially in the agriculture, forestry, and fishery sectors, have shown positive improvement (in 2024, Vietnam’s agricultural exports reached nearly $62.5 billion). In 2025 and the years to come, exports from this sector are expected to improve further.
In 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will continue supporting businesses to maximize export opportunities offered by FTAs, particularly new-generation agreements such as the Vietnam-EU Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), the Vietnam-UK Free Trade Agreement (UKVFTA), the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The latest agreement is the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between Vietnam and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Source: thoibaotaichinh
