The goal of a 12% export growth is quite challenging given the current market risks, which require businesses to diversify their markets.
A Challenging Export Target for 2025
In the first month of 2025, Vietnam’s total import and export turnover reached over $63 billion, showing a decline in both exports and imports, making the export growth target for the entire year 2025 even more challenging.
According to data from the General Department of Customs, in January 2025, exports totaled $33.2 billion, down 6.6% compared to the previous month and down 4% compared to the same period last year. Conversely, imports in January 2025 amounted to over $30 billion, a decrease of 14.1% compared to the previous month and a 2.6% drop from January 2024. Thus, in the first month of the year, Vietnam had a trade surplus of over $3 billion.
The drop in export and import turnover in January compared to the same period last year is attributed to the Lunar New Year holidays (Tết Ất Tỵ 2025), while last year’s Tết holiday occurred in February 2024.
In an interview with Báo Công Thương, Dr. Đinh Trọng Thịnh, an economic expert, said that export orders at the end of November 2024 were down compared to November 2023, which is concerning.
Diversifying Markets to Avoid Trade Shocks
In 2024, Vietnam’s total import-export turnover reached $786 billion, an increase of 15.4%. Exports reached nearly $406 billion, up 14.3%. For 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Trade aims for a 12% growth in export turnover compared to the previous year.
The good news is that since the beginning of the year, orders for wood, textiles, leather, and footwear from major export markets have increased, signaling a positive outlook for Vietnam’s export activities. However, this depends on whether Vietnamese goods can meet the demands of these markets.
Mr. Trịnh Đức Kiên, Deputy Director of Kẻ Gỗ Co., Ltd., a wood processing and export business, shared that the company already has orders until the end of Q1 2025. After the Lunar New Year, several clients from the US and EU markets have reached out for inquiries. However, from the initial offer to finalizing orders, many factors come into play, including whether the company can meet the clients’ requirements.
Taking a more optimistic view, many believe that Vietnam is one of the top 20 most open economies in the world. As a participant in most Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with various countries and economies globally, Vietnam has the conditions to respond quickly and maintain growth amidst the possibility of global trade wars.
Among these, 17 FTAs provide a significant competitive advantage, allowing Vietnamese products to access over 60 markets globally, acting as a catalyst for export growth. More importantly, Vietnamese products have become deeply rooted in global markets and have adapted to market fluctuations.
In the agricultural sector, Vietnam’s 7 FTAs with regional countries have helped over 40 processed agricultural products from Đồng Giao Export Food Joint Stock Company access 25 markets.
Mr. Nguyễn Hữu Hiệu, Sales Director at Đồng Giao Export Food Joint Stock Company, shared that each market has its own preferences and characteristics. Since agricultural products are seasonal, besides meeting quality standards, companies must ensure they can provide enough supply year-round to meet customers’ demands.
For the wood industry, Mr. Nguyễn Thanh Lam, CEO of Lâm Việt Joint Stock Company, stated that the company’s annual export revenue for wood and furniture is around $30 million. Currently, Lâm Việt’s products are focused on three main markets: the US, EU, and the UK. To achieve this, the company meets the high standards of these markets, including traceability of materials, origin, and sustainability criteria. In the face of market volatility, the company is also trying to be more flexible to secure additional orders and customers.
To maintain its export position, Dr. Đinh Trọng Thịnh emphasized that, in addition to expanding export markets, businesses should fully leverage the 17 FTAs Vietnam has signed with partners to enhance export value and expand into other countries. This approach would diversify export investments, reducing excessive reliance on one country and mitigating the risks of trade policy changes.
Moreover, Dr. Đinh Trọng Thịnh recommended that relevant authorities find solutions to increase imports from the US, especially machinery, equipment, and modern technology, to enhance domestic production capacity, improve labor productivity, and foster sustainable growth in the coming years.
“Vietnam could also consider increasing imports of consumer goods, including aircraft and civilian vehicles, to balance the trade deficit with this partner,” Dr. Thịnh added.
In its recently released Global Trade Outlook Update, the World Trade Organization (WTO) raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2025 to 3.3%, up 0.3% from the previous forecast. Growth opportunities remain for large trading economies like Vietnam.
As global geopolitical developments continue to evolve unpredictably, many uncertainties present both major opportunities and challenges for exports. This calls for a push to improve production in Vietnam’s key export sectors this year.
Source: congthuong.vn
